From Moderate to Caesarist: 4 Scenarios for Trump 2.0

Donald Trump will arrive at the 2024 Republican convention — his Republican convention, finally and completely, without the dissent of 2016 or the pandemic that overshadowed 2020 — closer than ever to a second term. But the likelihood of a Trump restoration has not yet brought clarity about what it would actually usher in.

With Trump there is always the whipsaw, the forays toward normalcy and the reversion to a darker mean. Asked on the debate stage whether he would spend a second term seeking revenge on his political enemies, he promised that “my retribution is going to be success. We’re going to make this country successful again.” A few days later, he was on Truth Social, amplifying a post demanding a military tribunal for Liz Cheney.

With Trump, too, there is always the question of how his policy impulses interact with his personal laziness. He recently made a big show of repudiating Project 2025, a Heritage Foundation blueprint stuffed with severely conservative proposals, and then he produced a Republican Party platform stripped of some gun-rights and pro-life language and pledging to protect Medicare and Social Security from any kind of cuts. Are these signs that Trump knows he can just roll over conservative activist groups in pursuit of popularity? Or are they meaningless gestures, because personnel is policy and he’s going to hire all the guys who worked on Project 2025?

There’s no singular Trumpism whose workings we can confidently predict. Instead there are Trumpist scenarios and Trumpian personae — whose interactions, if he wins, will give his second term its shape.

First, there is Trump the moderate. This has always been an underestimated aspect of his brand, because his moderation is united to excess and demagoguery. But Trump is not a movement conservative, not an ideologue outside of core obsessions like trade and immigration, and he no longer has to fear revolts from his right the way he did in the days when he felt the need to pick a religious-conservative Reaganite as his vice president.

Glance over the G.O.P. platform, focus on the substance rather than the capital letters and the Trumpian flourishes, and you can see outlines of the pitch the moderate version of Trump wants to make to swing voters. I’ll be right-wing on crime and immigration, but I won’t touch your retirement programs. I’ll be anti-woke and pro-patriotism, but I won’t be Mike Pence on social issues. I’ll keep the tax cuts I passed last time, but I won’t necessarily pile on more tax cuts for the rich. I’ll keep America out of unnecessary wars.