There’s a Name for the Trap Biden Faces

After his shockingly poor performance in last week’s debate, President Biden is facing mounting pressure to drop out of the 2024 election. Influential voices in his own party have called for him to step aside. Polls indicate that many voters hope he will. Yet so far he is staying the course.

There’s a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows that instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.

One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions, but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles.

Some of the worst leadership decisions of our time can be traced to escalation of commitment. Many people lost their lives because American presidents pursued a futile war in Vietnam — and continued searching for weapons of mass destruction that weren’t in Iraq. As George Ball warned in a 1965 letter to President Lyndon Johnson: “Once we suffer large casualties, we will have started a well-nigh irreversible process. Our involvement will be so great that we cannot — without national humiliation — stop short of achieving our complete objectives. Of the two possibilities I think humiliation will be more likely.”

It happens in business, too: Blockbuster went bust because instead of buying Netflix, leaders escalated their commitment to renting physical videos. Kodak made the same mistake by doubling down on selling film instead of pivoting to digital cameras.

Escalation of commitment helps to explain why leaders are often so reluctant to loosen their grip on power. Losing a high-status position can make them feel as if they’re losing their place in the world. It leaves them with bruised egos and wounded pride.