We finally have the complete 2025 NFL schedule, which means it’s time for us to predict some early favorites. We’ll be using Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model, which forecasts the quality of each team and then simulates each game of the regular season and playoffs until a Super Bowl champion emerges.
We repeat that process 100,000 times to provide a realistic measure of how many games a team is likely to win, as well as how likely teams are to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Remember, we are still months away from the start of the NFL season and outlooks will change as we get closer to September. With that in mind, check out our interactive graphic to see how things look right now:
Oh, my Raven
The Baltimore Ravens have the highest odds to win the Super Bowl at 11.9 percent, according to the model. The Buffalo Bills, at 10.1 percent, have the second-best projection, representing a fairly significant gap between the Ravens and the field.
The Ravens’ biggest hurdle appears to be the strong competition in the AFC North. They have a 55.2 percent chance to win the division, which is only the fifth-highest mark in the league. Whether they come out on top in the regular season, the model believes the Ravens will be battle-tested with that schedule.
It’s not all that surprising. The Ravens have won 25 regular-season games over the past two seasons, with quarterback Lamar Jackson winning an MVP in 2023 and nearly claiming the award again in 2024. They get electric play out of the most important position, still have their core in place and will be well-coached. Expect the Ravens to be a force once again next season.
Philly not so special?
The numbers aren’t as hot for the defending Super Bowl champions. The Philadelphia Eagles have “only” a 7.8 percent chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy per the model, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
It’s not a disrespectful outlook, but we know they won’t see it that way in Philly. The Eagles are still set up for success with their key components returning, and there are major questions with their greatest conference competition in 2024 — the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings — but it’s not easy to repeat. The Kansas City Chiefs can attest to that.
Speaking of which …
The Chiefs are projected to win 10.8 games. Ten wins would be their lowest total since going 10-6 in 2017, the last season Patrick Mahomes wasn’t the full-time starting quarterback.
To be fair, the model believes in parity. The Ravens’ 11 projected wins are the highest in the league, while the Browns are at the lowest at 5.4. It’d be a surprise if a team or five didn’t win at least 12 games, and the Chiefs are surely among the candidates to do just that.
Not much new blood
The AFC’s playoff contestants are projected to be the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. The NFC field is projected to include the Eagles, Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Washington Commanders.
That’s only two new teams (Bengals, 49ers). Considering both massively underachieved in 2024, it’s understandable why the model is bullish on them in 2025.
Recent history would disagree with these numbers, though. There have been at least four new playoff teams every year since 1990.
Ready and Vrabel
Mike Vrabel, far and away the league’s most popular coaching hire, has joked about the New England Patriots winning the offseason championship. Of course, the best jokes usually have some truth behind them.
The model gives the Patriots a 47.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, a smidge behind the Chargers (47.9 percent) for the final postseason spot in the AFC. The Pats are also projected to win 8.9 games, just ahead of Vegas’ line of 8.5 wins.
Quarterback Drake Maye is expected to make a second-year jump, and the Patriots’ offseason additions (WR Stefon Diggs, RT Morgan Moses, DT Milton Williams, DE Harold Landry, CB Carlton Davis, LB Robert Spillane, LT Will Campbell) should be a terrific complement to Vrabel and his staff. A healthy Christian Barmore and an exciting draft class behind Campbell will help, too.
If 2024 was indeed rock bottom in the post-dynasty era, the Patriots are on the rise.
NFC North heading south
Another offseason champ, the Chicago Bears, weren’t viewed as favorably. They’re projected for 7.1 wins and a 16.7 percent chance to make the playoffs. Only three NFC teams were given worse odds to reach the postseason.
The Bears seemingly hired a rockstar head coach in Ben Johnson, and they appeared to do a phenomenal job of fortifying the offensive line in front of Caleb Williams. But unlike Michael Jordan with NBC, the Bears are not back.
One of their division counterparts, the Vikings, are poised for a regression after switching from Sam Darnold to J.J. McCarthy. Fair enough, as there’s no book on the second-year QB.
Vikings fans might disagree, as the team was one win away from the NFC’s No. 1 seed in 2024, but there’s reason to be skeptical. Minnesota went 13-4 in coach Kevin O’Connell’s first season before backsliding to 7-10 in 2023. O’Connell is viewed as one of the league’s best coaches, but he still has to prove he can sustain success year over year. And with another new starting quarterback, that could be tough.
Brown and out
After doubling down on Deshaun Watson, the Cleveland Browns about-faced and showed restraint this offseason, bypassing a first-round quarterback and loading up for the 2026 draft. That’s looking like a better decision with each passing moment.
The Browns are projected for 5.4 wins, the fewest in the league, so they’re steamrolling toward the No. 1 pick in a better quarterback draft — one they’ll most certainly hope includes Texas QB Arch Manning. What’s more, the Browns own the Jacksonville Jaguars’ pick, which the model projects to be ninth.
Last year, the Chicago Bears turned the first and ninth picks into a pair of players (QB Caleb Williams and WR Rome Odunze) who could change the direction of the franchise. The Browns may have an opportunity to rescue themselves from a similar abyss.
It’s hardly a sure thing, of course. The New York Giants (5.5 projected wins), Tennessee Titans (5.8) and New Orleans Saints (5.8) aren’t far ahead, according to the model. If word breaks during the season that Manning is leaning toward declaring, this could be a tankathon of epic proportions.
Not unrelated, the New York Jets, Browns and Titans each have less than a 0.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Better luck next year.
